Tahlequah, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

240
FXUS64 KTSA 070631
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
131 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

  - Severe MCS expected to pass across the region tonight through
    mid morning. Ongoing flooding will worsen and new flood areas
    may develop.

  - Relative lull in storm chances from late today through
    tonight. Another storm complex Sunday evening into overnight
    hours.

  - Flash and main-stem river flooding threat will be widespread
    generally along and north of Interstate 40.

  - Brief dry period through mid week with below average
    temperatures for this time of year. Rain chances returns later
    in the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through mid afternoon)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Storms steadily expanding in coverage across NE OK in advance of
organized bowing MCS quickly moving across north central OK. The
severe threat will quickly increase this morning both with the
ongoing scattered storms and certainly with the advancing bow. 00z
KOUN sounding sampled the corridor of strong elevated instability
and effective shear profiles support high likelihood of organized
severe weather with the passing MCS which is timed to clear
western AR by mid morning. Flooding will quickly worsen with the
additional heavy rains and rises should be anticipated on area
main stem rivers.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Late afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

The remnant outflow boundary may focus a few storms later today
into the evening across SE OK but coverage is likely to be low. A
relative lull in storm chances in expected from late afternoon
through tonight into the day Sunday.

Troughing deepens through the central CONUS and drives a cold
front through the area Sunday night into Monday. Another storm
complex is likely during this time frame with highest chances
across SE OK and points west and southward, however there remains
uncertainty in the placement of this complex and higher weather
impacts remain possible pending the exact track.

A few drier and cooler days are likely for early next week before
a weak upper low drifts across the Southern Plains mid to late
week. This feature has been consistent in guidance and precip
chances have trended upward in the Wed - Thurs time frame
as the upper low passes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Showers and thunderstorms have developed across E OK early tonight,
and expect coverage to increase during the overnight hours as a
complex of storms moves into the region from the west.
All sites will likely experience impacts between 06-14z with
potential for strong winds, heavy rainfall, and significantly
reduced vsbys. Large hail may also occur in the stronger cells early
tonight. Showers and MVFR to IFR cigs will develop behind storms
late tonight into the morning hours, especially across NE OK and NW
AR sites. Conditions are forecast to improve by early afternoon with
VFR conditions likely areawide by 18z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  66  89  65 /  70   0  10  40
FSM   86  68  92  69 /  90  30   0  40
MLC   87  68  89  67 /  70  40  10  60
BVO   83  61  88  62 /  50   0  10  40
FYV   82  63  88  64 /  90  20   0  30
BYV   81  62  87  64 /  90  10   0  30
MKO   83  65  88  66 /  80  20  10  40
MIO   81  62  87  63 /  80   0  10  40
F10   85  65  89  65 /  80  20  10  50
HHW   90  70  89  67 /  70  40  10  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ054>072.

AR...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...43